Overview
- The Bureau of Meteorology declared El Niño active on Tuesday, joining NOAA and the WMO in confirming that central Pacific sea‑surface temperatures and atmospheric indicators meet El Niño thresholds.
- Ocean observations show the Niño3.4 region warming at the fastest rate since 1943, a deeply negative 30‑day SOI and large subsurface heat that many seasonal models say could push the event to strong or very strong levels later this year.
- Forecast ensembles, including the BOM’s ACCESS‑S and NOAA outlooks, put a high chance of a peak in boreal winter 2026–27 with NOAA estimating about a 63 percent chance of a very strong event.
- Regional agencies warn practical impacts are rising now: forecasts increase the probability of below‑normal monsoon rainfall and hotter conditions over India and of below‑median winter/spring rainfall plus warmer temperatures for southern and eastern Australia.
- Experts stress uncertainty because other ocean drivers and the spring predictability barrier can alter local outcomes, but they urge planners in agriculture, water and energy to prepare for drought, crop stress and higher demand that could ripple through food and fuel markets.