El Niño Confirmed as Fierce Early Cold Wave Hits Southern Brazil

Overview

• A potent polar air mass moving across Brazil between June 22 and 26 is producing sharp temperature drops, broad frost risk and the chance of localized snow in high zones of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina.
• NOAA confirmed El Niño in June 2026 and meteorological services report the event is expected to strengthen through the season, changing large-scale circulation that governs rain and cold outbreaks.
• Models and regional forecasters predict two additional strong cold waves in July that can bring subzero minima and geada to the South and some elevated areas of the Southeast, but those freezes are likely to be short-lived.
• As El Niño gains strength, the season should shift toward above-normal rainfall and more frequent frontal systems in the South while much of the North and Northeast faces drier, hotter conditions that raise wildfire and respiratory-health risks.
• Authorities warn of near-term impacts on transport, agriculture and public health from frost, fog and heavy southern rains and advise local emergency services to prepare for fast-moving cold snaps followed by late-winter warmth in August and September.