Overview
- US forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which declared an El Niño on June 11, say the event is active and give roughly a 63% chance it will reach “very strong” levels by November–January.
- Satellite data from Sentinel‑6 and other observations show large subsurface warm water pulses driven by eastward Kelvin waves, a pattern that resembles the build‑up to the very strong 1997 El Niño.
- The United Nations’ World Food Programme and FAO launched a $202 million joint anticipatory appeal to protect nearly nine million people in 22 high‑risk countries before expected climate impacts unfold.
- Private scenario modelling by Risilience projects large agricultural losses and warns about critical threats to about 500 million smallholder farmers and potential staple price surges, though that estimate is proprietary and subject to model uncertainty.
- Regional forecasters and analysts warn of elevated risks to the southwest Indian monsoon and to crops in Southeast Asia, southern Africa and parts of Latin America, prompting governments and traders to prepare contingency measures such as export controls, insurance and drought‑resilient support for farmers.