Overview
- Multiple independent polls this week put former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar! at about 24 Knesset seats, making it the single largest list in several surveys.
- Most surveys project the anti‑Netanyahu bloc in the mid‑to‑high 50s of seats but commonly short of the 61 required to govern, so coalition formation depends on a handful of small parties.
- A merger of Hadash, Ta’al and Balad into a Joint List boosts Arab representation by about one seat in polls, which increases the leverage of Arab lists in close coalition arithmetic.
- New right‑wing splinter lists, especially an Ofer Winter run, are shown in scenario polls to erode Netanyahu’s bloc and could lower its total into the high‑40s or low‑50s if they win seats.
- One Channel 14/NEXT DATA survey stands out as an outlier projecting a 63‑seat right‑wing majority, highlighting sharp differences in poll methods and the tight margin where a few thousand votes can change outcomes.