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EIA Forecasts Solar to Outproduce Coal on Texas Grid in 2026

Battery-backed solar growth in Texas signals a lasting change in the grid mix.

Overview

  • EIA’s latest outlook projects 78 billion kilowatthours of utility-scale solar in ERCOT in 2026 versus 60 billion kilowatthours from coal on the main Texas grid.
  • The agency expects solar to exceed coal for most months in 2026 with coal briefly leading in December, then for all but January and December in 2027.
  • Texas is slated to account for roughly 40% of U.S. solar additions in 2026, including the 837‑megawatt Tehuacana Creek 1 solar-plus-storage project.
  • EIA reports no new coal plants are planned in ERCOT, while natural gas has been the top power source in recent years at about 44% of generation.
  • Growing load from data centers, cryptocurrency mining, factories, and oil and gas operations is drawing more solar and batteries onto the grid to meet demand.