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eDNA Signals Boost Whale Density Forecasts by 53 Percent, Study Finds

The approach could steer protections at hotspots where shipping lanes intersect migrating whales.

Overview

  • Cal Poly and Scripps researchers report in PLOS One that microbial and small‑plankton DNA in seawater predicts baleen whale density with 53% greater accuracy than standard models.
  • The method filters seawater, extracts DNA, and sequences genetic markers to identify microbes and tiny plankton that track the habitat and prey conditions tied to whale presence.
  • The models used 2014–2020 ship surveys and CalCOFI seawater samples from San Diego to Morro Bay, spanning over 200,000 square kilometers of the southern California Current.
  • More accurate maps of whale hotspots could guide vessel speed reductions or routing in areas like the Santa Barbara Channel to cut the risk of deadly ship strikes.
  • The team released portable software so agencies and researchers can test the approach in other waters after local validation.