Overview
- The won is trading near 1,540 per U.S. dollar after recently touching its weakest level in about three decades, leaving the currency high and volatile.
- Citi’s Kim Jin-wook and other seminar panelists forecast the won will hover near 1,480 in the short term, strengthen to about 1,450 within six to 12 months, and trade closer to 1,400 over three to five years.
- Panelists said strong semiconductor exports and a record current-account surplus should support the won, but a large share of dollar revenues is being kept abroad and not returned to Korea.
- Foreign investor flows and hedging are a key near-term drag: holdings of Korean assets roughly doubled to about $1.9 trillion by end‑May and recent net selling has pushed the currency lower.
- Several economists urged preemptive tightening by the Bank of Korea, saying rate hikes could begin soon and would help narrow the U.S.-Korea rate gap and reduce exchange-rate swings.