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Economist Warns California Billionaire Tax Could Backfire as Ballot Push Advances

The fight over a 5% levy on roughly 200 billionaires doubles as a test of how California funds a projected $100 billion health care gap.

Overview

  • Stanford finance professor Joshua Rauh told an audience that the proposed one‑time tax could leave the state $25 billion worse off if high earners leave and income‑tax receipts fall.
  • Backers with SEIU‑UHW say the petition drive has reached about 25% of the 874,641 valid signatures needed to place the measure on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot.
  • The plan would charge a 5% tax on net assets above $1 billion for residents, affecting about 200 people and valuing holdings like stocks, bonds, and artwork.
  • Critics point to reported departures of tech figures including Larry Page, Sergey Brin, Peter Thiel, David Sacks, and Mark Zuckerberg, noting the measure’s January 1, 2026 retroactive start date as a factor.
  • Supporters argue the revenue would help maintain Medi‑Cal and other safety‑net care, while a CalMatters commentary frames the levy as a public dividend for fortunes built with government research, contracts, and rules.