Overview
- After a two‑day meeting, the ECB left the deposit rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, saying inflation is expected to stabilize at 2% over the medium term but risks remain from trade policy and geopolitics.
- The 25‑year interest rate swap, the benchmark for fixed loans, has climbed about 80 basis points in a year to roughly 3.2%, pushing up fixed‑rate mortgage pricing.
- Bank of Italy data show the average TAEG reached 3.7% in November, confirming higher effective borrowing costs for home loans.
- With three‑month Euribor near 2% after falling from 2023 highs, initial costs on variable mortgages are lower; example quotes for a €126,000, 25‑year loan show fixed TAN 3.23% (about €613/month) versus variable 2.29% (about €552), according to Facile.it and Mutui.it.
- Despite cheaper variables, borrower preference remains tilted to predictability, with about 91% of January 2026 applications for fixed rates and the variable share rising to 9% from 1% a year earlier.