Overview
- The Governing Council left policy unchanged for a fourth straight meeting, keeping the deposit, main refinancing and marginal lending rates at 2.00%, 2.15% and 2.40%.
- New projections show eurozone GDP growth at 1.4% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, with headline inflation seen at 2.1% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026 as services disinflation eases more slowly.
- The ECB reaffirmed a meeting‑by‑meeting approach with no preset path, stating all options remain on the table, including rate increases if services prices and wages keep pressure on underlying inflation.
- Retail credit conditions are diverging: a standard variable‑rate mortgage payment fell by roughly €50 per month in 2025, while fixed‑rate offers rose as the 25‑year IRS climbed to about 3.1% from 2.4%.
- In Italy, Codacons citing Bankitalia reports average mortgage rates for families rose to 3.73% in October from 3.50% in January, and the ECB reiterated readiness to deploy its Transmission Protection Instrument to counter disorderly market moves.