Overview
- China’s trade surplus reached about $1.08 trillion through November and CPI rose 0.7% year over year, intensifying calls to allow a stronger yuan even as producer prices stayed negative.
- The IMF raised its 2025 China growth forecast to 5% and pressed for faster structural reforms, citing property-sector stress, local-government debt and weak domestic demand.
- Policy signals turned easier with the Swiss National Bank holding its policy rate at 0% on soft inflation and the Central Bank of Jordan cutting 25 basis points as reserves and price stability improved.
- NVIDIA remains the prime earnings beneficiary of the AI buildout heading into 2026, though analysts flag potential challenges from Alphabet’s TPUs and supply and energy constraints in data centers.
- Emerging markets are projected to gain in 2026 on a softer dollar and Fed easing, with the UAE’s non‑oil GDP up 5.7% in the first half of 2025 and crypto markets still volatile as institutions split on the next leg.