Overview
- The European Union Aviation Safety Agency has issued formal advisories urging carriers to continue avoiding Iranian airspace and to steer clear of Iraqi and Lebanese airspace for a temporary period.
- EASA said the guidance reflects persistent missile and drone activity and raised Iranian air‑defence readiness that increase the danger of misidentifying commercial aircraft.
- The advisories are precautionary safety guidance for airlines rather than legal airspace closures, but they are already forcing route changes and operational disruption for carriers over the region.
- Prediction markets and traders have reacted by raising the odds of a later full closure of Iranian airspace while placing low near‑term odds on Israel closing its skies.
- Officials and market watchers are focused on statements from the Civil Aviation Organization of Iran and regional leaders because any official announcement or new military action could change airspace status and market expectations.