Earth-Directed CME From Dec. 31 M7.1 Flare Forecast To Bring Geomagnetic Storm Tonight

Overview

• The Dec. 31 solar flare peaked at 16:51 MSK with an M7.1 rating and launched a coronal mass ejection partially aimed at Earth.
• Forecasts call for the CME to arrive the night of Jan. 2–3 with geomagnetic conditions up to G2 and about a 30% chance of G3 or stronger.
• Despite persistent solar wind from a coronal hole, geomagnetic activity during New Year’s night remained low, according to IKI RAN.
• IKI RAN’s Sergey Bogachyov reports coronal holes have increased sharply and are now the primary source of many geomagnetic disturbances.
• Context from recent years shows three G4 storms in 2025 versus four G4 and one G5 the year prior, with storm days rising from about 40 in 2024 to 73 in 2025, and strong events remain possible depending on eruption direction and structure.