Overview
- Political Data Inc. reports more than 1.03 million ballots returned in the first nine days—about 4.48% of those mailed—with daily returns matching the pace of the Newsom recall and 76% from voters over 50 and 72% from white voters.
- Recent surveys show modest leads for passage, including Emerson at 51%–34%, Co/efficient at 54%–36%, and UC Berkeley IGS at 48%–32%, with the rest undecided.
- Spending has reached roughly $140 million, with Yes on 50 backed by House Majority PAC and George Soros’ Fund for Policy Reform, and No on 50 funded largely by Charles Munger Jr., the Congressional Leadership Fund, and allies.
- If approved, the AB 604 map would be used in 2026, 2028, and 2030, and analysts project it could net Democrats up to five seats by targeting Reps. Doug LaMalfa, Kevin Kiley, and Ken Calvert, with David Valadao and Darrell Issa seen as toss-ups.
- Opposition has mobilized among rural groups such as the California Farm Bureau, former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger criticized the plan as a ‘scam,’ and Democrats sparred over Tom Steyer’s late $12 million ad as Barack Obama headlines pro‑Prop 50 messaging.