Overview
- State Duma financial market committee chair Anatoly Aksakov predicts a 0.5 percentage-point reduction to 16%, framing it as his personal expectation rather than an official signal.
- Aksakov says he initially anticipated a move to 15% but scaled back due to tax decisions that could lift inflation temporarily.
- He argues inflation is declining at a brisk pace despite heightened price expectations linked to recent tax measures.
- The Bank of Russia’s previous decisions in 2025 cut the key rate to 20% in June, 18% in July, 17% in September, and 16.5% in October while maintaining a neutral stance.
- Major lenders say they do not plan to lower mortgage rates before the board’s decision on Friday, citing elevated funding costs and awaiting policy signals.