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Dueling Israel Polls Diverge on Majority, From Hung Knesset to Right-Wing Lead

The mixed results point to Arab-party leverage shaping who can form a government.

Overview

  • Channel 12 found Likud at 25 seats and projected that Jewish parties cannot form a government without Arab-party support.
  • A separate Channel 14 survey showed the right-wing bloc at 65 seats with Likud at 35 and Yesh Atid under the electoral threshold, the minimum vote share to enter the Knesset.
  • Kan 11 reported that opposition leaders plan to offer Benny Gantz the presidency in a bid to merge parties under Gadi Eisenkot or Naftali Bennett.
  • Most respondents in Channel 12’s poll said the government has not done enough to help Israelis hit by wartime economic losses.
  • In a scenario test, a Bennett–Eisenkot joint list reached 33 seats without changing the overall bloc balance.