Overview
- At least 50 newly created accounts on Polymarket, the crypto-based site for betting on real-world events, placed first wagers Tuesday before President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, generating large profits.
- AP and The Guardian reported blockchain data showing unusually precise timing, including wagers placed minutes before Trump's post on Truth Social.
- Polymarket marked the ceasefire market as contested and paused some payouts pending final validation within 48 hours.
- Rep. Blake Moore said the trades were unlikely to be in good faith and pressed for rules that treat such activity as insider trading.
- The case deepens concern over fast-growing prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, which critics say turn war decisions into profit and which have faced earlier insider-trading accusations tied to the Iran conflict.