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Dollar Tree Beats Q4 Estimates as Stock Slides on Softer Guidance

Management projected lighter near-term results than Wall Street expected, signaling caution across discount retail.

Overview

  • Adjusted Q4 EPS came in at $2.56 versus the $2.53 consensus, with net sales up 9% to $5.45 billion and comparable sales rising 5%.
  • Comparable-sales gains were led by a 6.3% increase in average ticket size, offset by a 1.2% decline in traffic.
  • Dollar Tree guided Q1 EPS to $1.45–$1.60 with a midpoint of $1.52, below the ~$1.56 analysts anticipated, and forecast sales of $4.9–$5.0 billion.
  • For the full fiscal year, the company projected EPS of $6.50–$6.90 on revenue of $20.5–$20.7 billion, aligning near the softer end of Street expectations.
  • Shares fell roughly 3.8% after the report as investors focused on the outlook, even as the quarter swung to a $506.1 million profit from a year-ago loss and peers like Dollar General struck a cautious tone.