Dollar Rebounds to R$5.23 Against Real as Pre‑Holiday Flows and Risk Aversion Lift Greenback

Driven by holiday profit‑taking and a cautious global tone, the move is viewed by strategists as a brief interruption to the dollar’s broader downtrend.

Overview

The U.S. dollar closed up 0.57% at R$5.2299 on Feb. 13 after touching an intraday high near R$5.2495.
Traders pointed to technical adjustments and profit‑taking ahead of Carnival, alongside risk aversion, as the main drivers of the day’s rebound.
The real was the third weakest performer among 33 liquid emerging‑market currencies, and Brazil’s Ibovespa fell 0.69% on the session though it gained 1.92% for the week.
Despite two days of gains lifting the weekly change to +0.18%, the dollar remains down 0.34% in February and 4.72% year to date versus the real, with analysts expecting rallies to be sold.
U.S. CPI rose 0.2% in January with core up 0.3%, and CME data put the probability of a June Fed cut near 68%, while lower U.S. Treasury yields helped flatten Brazil’s DI curve as long rates edged down.