Overview
- The dollar was steady and on track for a small weekly gain as investors awaited September CPI, which the Labor Department will release despite the federal shutdown.
- Market pricing implies roughly 97%–99% odds of a 25-basis-point cut at the Oct. 28–29 FOMC meeting, with traders also leaning toward another reduction in December.
- The White House confirmed President Trump will meet China's President Xi in South Korea next Thursday, with analysts cautioning that market expectations for major progress remain low.
- The yen was flat after weakening earlier, as perceptions of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s dovish stance and a planned fiscal package kept near-term Bank of Japan hike bets subdued.
- Gold and silver advanced after fresh U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil pushed oil higher and lifted inflation expectations, while the ongoing U.S. government shutdown continued to cap broader dollar upside.