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Dollar General Shares Fall After Strong Q4 as 2026 Outlook Disappoints

Management cites macro pressures limiting near-term growth.

Overview

  • Fourth-quarter results beat expectations with EPS of $1.93 on $10.9 billion in revenue and comparable sales up 4.3%, driven by 2.6% higher traffic and a 1.7% increase in average ticket.
  • Operating profit more than doubled to about $606 million, aided by lower shrink after removing self-checkout and by SKU and inventory optimization that expanded gross margin.
  • Shares fell roughly 5%–9% in early trading after the company guided fiscal 2026 EPS to $7.10–$7.35 and same-store sales growth to 2.2%–2.7%, below or near consensus.
  • The company plans about 4,730 real estate projects in fiscal 2026, including roughly 450 new U.S. stores, about 10 in Mexico, 2,000 Project Renovate remodels, 2,250 Project Elevate remodels, and about 20 relocations.
  • Dollar General ended 2025 with a net store increase to 20,893 locations after 589 openings and 290 closures, while flagging headwinds from competition, an estimated $0.13 EPS drag from an expired tax credit, winter-storm impacts on early Q1 comps, and an elevated share-price run-up over the past year.