Overview
- The dollar has strengthened this week after private payrolls from ADP, a firmer ISM services reading, and stronger factory orders reinforced the view that US interest rates will stay higher for longer.
- Renewed attacks in the Gulf and US military strikes near the Strait of Hormuz lifted oil prices and safe-haven demand, which helped propel the dollar toward a two-month high.
- USD/JPY has hovered at and briefly above the 160.00 level, reviving warnings of possible official verbal intervention and drawing attention to recent hawkish signals from Bank of Japan officials.
- Major currency pairs are trading around critical technical levels with the euro slipping under key hourly moving averages toward support and the pound falling below its 200-day moving average, while USD/CHF failed to hold a break above its 200-day average and reversed lower.
- Markets are positioned for Friday’s US jobs report and a packed central-bank calendar including the FOMC, ECB, BOJ and RBI, and oil or Gulf developments could quickly reshape rate expectations, inflation outlooks and emerging-market currency pressure.