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DOJ Closes Powell Investigation, Setting Up Senate Vote on Warsh

Markets expect no rate change next week with key leadership questions closer to resolution.

Overview

  • U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro ended the criminal probe of Jerome Powell on Friday, reserving the right to restart it and deferring related review to the Federal Reserve’s inspector general.
  • The Senate Banking Committee scheduled a Wednesday, April 29 vote to advance Kevin Warsh’s nomination, following Friday’s decision that removed Senator Thom Tillis’s stated blockade.
  • Powell’s term as chair ends May 15, and he has said he could remain on the Fed’s Board until the matter is resolved with “transparency and finality,” a stance allies say Pirro’s caveat complicates.
  • Investors expect the Fed to hold its key rate at 3.50%–3.75% at next week’s meeting, with the Iran conflict lifting energy costs and making policymakers wary of both higher inflation and weaker hiring.
  • Warsh pledged independence at his hearing, yet analysts say his remarks point to a longer hold rather than quick cuts, while a judge’s March ruling quashing DOJ subpoenas and letters from Senate Democrats underscore concerns about pressure on Fed independence.