Overview
- Doha indirect talks between U.S. envoys and Iranian representatives produced “positive progress” that investors saw on Wednesday as a cue to cut the wartime premium and send Brent and WTI back toward pre‑conflict prices.
- Iran’s joint military command issued a formal warning that tankers must follow Tehran‑approved routes in the Strait of Hormuz or face a forceful response, keeping transit security and sovereignty disputes unresolved.
- Observed tanker movements have surged from wartime lows, with Morgan Stanley reporting about 35 vessels exiting the Persian Gulf, a level similar to the 30–40 range seen before the war.
- Bears on the market point to rising supply as a downside force: higher Russian exports, record U.S. production and likely OPEC+ output increases combine with weak Chinese imports to create a conditional risk of short‑term oversupply.
- The recovery remains fragile because many vessel movements and Gulf production are still below pre‑war norms, insurers and shippers are cautious after repeated attacks on commercial ships, and diplomatic and logistical questions must be settled for flows to stay steady.