Overview
- A roughly 40–45 foot Falcon 9 upper stage is predicted to hit the Moon on Wednesday, Aug. 5 in the early hours with an impact time around 2:30–2:45 a.m. Eastern, according to independent trackers and multiple research teams.
- The object was left in a high, moon‑crossing Earth orbit after a Jan. 15, 2025 launch that carried two commercial landers and has been cataloged and tracked as 2025-010D.
- Analysts estimate the stage will strike at about 5,400 mph (≈8,700 kph), releasing energy on the order of a few tons of TNT and excavating a crater roughly 27 meters across and a few meters deep in model runs.
- NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea’s Danuri spacecraft are scheduled for before‑and‑after imaging, and researchers are urging professional and amateur observers to record the brief flash and the longer‑lasting ejecta plume.
- Scientists say the event is a rare chance to calibrate models of lunar impacts and to highlight gaps in disposal practice because the strike could likely have been avoided by sending the stage into heliocentric orbit, a lesson for future cislunar traffic management.