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Direct Ocean Data Show Atlantic Overturning Weakening Across the Western North Atlantic

Fresh modeling warns a shutdown could flip the Southern Ocean into a carbon source that boosts global temperatures by about 0.2°C.

Overview

  • New analyses of mooring arrays report a coherent slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at the ocean’s western boundary across several North Atlantic latitudes.
  • RAPID‑MOCHA data indicate the flow has declined by roughly 90,000 cubic metres per second each year, about a 10% drop from 2004 to 2023, though the estimate carries large uncertainty.
  • Pressure records from three additional western‑Atlantic arrays off the West Indies, the US east coast, and Nova Scotia show an even stronger weakening with smaller uncertainty.
  • Researchers say meltwater from Greenland is likely diluting salty surface waters and slowing the sinking that drives the deep southward limb of the circulation.
  • A separate simulation study finds that an AMOC collapse would release carbon from the Southern Ocean and add 0.17°C to 0.27°C of global warming, with models indicating the system would not recover once off at CO₂ levels at or above 350 ppm.