Overview
- Jamie Dimon, who spoke Monday on the Master Investor podcast, said he personally would not buy broad equities or long-dated U.S. Treasurys at current prices.
- He argued the 10-year Treasury yield should sit around 4% to 4.5% even if inflation returns to the Fed’s 2% target, leaving little upside for long-term bond prices.
- Dimon pointed to wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, rising U.S.-China tensions, and growing military spending as reasons markets are underpricing risk.
- He expressed skepticism about official inflation measures after noting inflation has run above 3% for nearly five years and cited the roughly $39 trillion national debt as a driver of bond-market vulnerability.
- If yields rise materially, consumers and businesses could face higher mortgage and borrowing costs, and markets that are currently upbeat could see a sharp reassessment of valuations.