Overview
- Derek Merrin led with about 44% in Tuesday’s Republican primary, according to AP projections, with Josh Williams near one quarter of the vote and Madison Sheahan around 20%.
- The matchup is a rematch of 2024, when Kaptur, the longest-serving woman in Congress, edged Merrin by roughly 2,400 votes in a race decided weeks after Election Day.
- Ohio’s 2025 map made the district more favorable to Republicans, shifting from Trump +7 in 2024 to about Trump +11 under the new lines.
- Election handicappers now view the race as highly competitive, with Cook Political Report rating it a Toss Up and Inside Elections listing it Tilt Republican in a contest that could shape control of the House.
- Primary dynamics drew scrutiny, including Sheahan’s ICE tenure and denied misconduct claims, Williams’s explicit Facebook posts, and criticism of Merrin’s ties to a firm that amplified those posts.