Overview
- CNN data analyst Harry Enten said Thursday that aggregated polls show Democrats leading in Georgia, North Carolina and Texas and competitive in Virginia, a development he called potentially historic.
- Enten cited specific margins of strength with Sen. Jon Ossoff up about 13 points in Georgia, former Gov. Roy Cooper up about 9 points in North Carolina, and James Talarico holding a roughly 2-point lead in Texas.
- Analysts attribute the movement mainly to a roughly 30-point swing by white, college-educated voters toward Democrats since the Trump-era baseline, which has pared Republican advantages in those states.
- Prediction-market odds have shifted toward parity as well, with Kalshi moving from a Republican edge of about 56% a month ago to near-even roughly 51% to 49%, signaling growing competitiveness for Senate control.
- The coverage places these shifts in long-term context of the post-1960s Southern realignment and warns the picture can still change before November because polls are snapshots and much campaign activity remains.