Overview
- Forward Majority has committed to spend about $30 million on roughly two dozen state legislative races this cycle, saying the investment is aimed at influencing redistricting ahead of 2028.
- The group’s in-house model, called Tipping Points, scans precinct-level demographic and voting data to identify a small set of razor-thin contests it views as high leverage.
- Forward Majority told reporters it sees as few as eight races in Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that could determine control of chambers representing about 42 million people.
- The push follows recent legal and political shifts — including mid-cycle redraws in states like Texas and an April Supreme Court ruling that narrowed Section 2 challenges — which have loosened constraints on partisan mapmaking.
- If successful, the effort could help Democrats win the unified state control needed to draw favorable congressional maps, intensify a broader redistricting arms race, and trigger more legal fights over maps that are still unresolved in court.