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Delayed CPI Shows 3% Inflation as Fact-Checks Undercut Trump on Grocery Prices

The softer reading boosts odds of a Fed rate cut next week despite a shutdown that could halt October data.

Overview

  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported September consumer prices rose 0.3% from August and 3.0% over 12 months, with gasoline up 4.1% on the month and core inflation running at 3.0% year over year.
  • Grocery prices increased 0.3% in September, and fact-checkers said this contradicts President Trump’s claims that food costs are down.
  • Specific food categories saw sharp annual gains, including coffee up 18.9% and beef and veal up 14.7%, according to the CPI data.
  • The White House said the shutdown likely means no October inflation report, after key BLS staff were recalled to complete September’s release for Social Security calculations.
  • Economists linked recent price pressures in part to tariffs and tighter immigration enforcement affecting farm labor, while analysts said the tamer print supports expectations for a Fed rate cut next week.