Overview
- A roughly 12‑metre upper stage left in a high, eccentric Earth orbit after a Jan. 15, 2025 launch is predicted to hit the Moon on Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2026 near Einstein crater at about 2.43 km/s (≈5,400 mph).
- Researchers estimate the hollow metal stage will vaporize on contact, excavate a crater about 27 metres wide and produce an ejecta plume that could be detectable by telescopes for minutes after impact.
- NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea’s Danuri are scheduled to take before‑and‑after images and a global network of professional and amateur observers has been asked to watch the event for flash and plume data.
- Scientists say this well‑tracked artificial impact offers a rare chance to calibrate models of crater and plume formation for human‑made objects, which behave differently from natural meteoroids because they are hollow and fragmented.
- Experts warn the incident highlights gaps in deep‑space disposal and traffic management, noting the strike likely could have been avoided by moving the stage into a heliocentric orbit and that similar debris poses growing risks to future lunar operations.