Overview
- A Nature study from the Potsdam Institute reports that at 22–28% total forest loss, 1.5–1.9°C of global warming could trigger widespread Amazon dieback.
- About 17–18% of the rainforest is already gone, which places the basin close to the modelled risk range.
- The modelling projects that 62–77% of the biome could convert to grassland, savanna or scrubby forest under those loss and warming levels.
- Trees recycle up to half of the region’s rain through transpiration, and cutting forest weakens this moisture loop and makes the remaining forest drier and less resilient.
- Researchers say halting deforestation, restoring degraded areas, and making rapid emission cuts can still lower the risk of crossing a tipping point.