Overview
- Negotiations among the seven basin states remain stalled along Upper Basin and Lower Basin lines, with the Upper Basin rejecting the Lower Basin’s May 1 proposal for voluntary, spread-out cuts.
- The Bureau issued five alternative plans in January and will publish an updated plan by mid-July with final guidance in August if states do not reach agreement.
- A federal “no deal” model under consideration could impose sharply asymmetric cuts, with one scenario projecting up to a 77% reduction in Arizona’s Colorado River supply.
- Arizona has increased its legal preparations by adding $6 million to its Colorado River legal fund, bringing the total to $9 million and hiring outside counsel to prepare for likely litigation.
- The dispute reflects deeper risks: long-term drought, record low reservoir levels, and large groundwater losses have shrunk supply and raise the threat of wider impacts on cities, farms, and hydropower.