Overview
- Polls published June 13–14 by Guarumo/Ecoanalítica, AtlasIntel and CNC show Abelardo de la Espriella ahead of Iván Cepeda by margins that range from about 3.9 to 7.8 percentage points.
- Public campaigning has ended for the legally mandated week of reflection and the runoff is set for June 21, with the winner to assume the presidency on August 7, 2026.
- Cepeda is running on continuity with President Gustavo Petro’s social and peace-oriented agenda while De la Espriella has built his campaign on a security-first program that includes bombing guerrilla camps, coca fumigation, building large prisons and seeking foreign assistance for counterdrug operations.
- De la Espriella’s rise has been driven by spectacle and digital outreach, but his past legal defense of controversial clients and provocative campaign incidents have drawn sharp criticism and feature heavily in the debate.
- High political polarization and a worsening security situation, including the 2025 assassination of a pre-candidate, make turnout and local unrest key risks on election day and could shape how the next government governs and responds to violence.