Datafolha Shows Lula Leading Flávio Bolsonaro 47% to 43% in Second‑Round Poll

Overview

• The poll reports Lula with 47% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 43% in a second‑round simulation and shows Lula at 41% versus Flávio at 31% in a first‑round scenario, based on 2,004 interviews and a ±2 percentage‑point margin of error.
• Results are effectively unchanged from Datafolha’s previous round, with both top candidates’ moves falling inside the poll’s margin of error and aggregators showing a similar two‑horse dynamic.
• Public evaluation of the government remains divided, with 38% rating Lula’s administration as ‘bad or terrible,’ 32% as ‘good or great,’ and presidential approval at about 48% approve versus 49% disapprove.
• The survey was fielded after disclosures about messages tying Flávio to banker Daniel Vorcaro and after U.S. measures tied to a Trump–Flávio meeting, and it overlapped but did not fully capture a Federal Police operation on Jaques Wagner that PL leaders say could change the picture.
• Other potential candidates remain in single digits, concentrating the race on Lula and Flávio and meaning small shifts inside the margin of error could decide a close runoff; the next national polls and legal probes will be key to detect any trend change.