Datafolha Shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in Statistical Tie for 2026 Runoff

Overview

• The March 3–5 Datafolha survey of 2,004 voters finds Lula at 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 43% in a runoff, within the ±2 percentage point margin of error (TSE BR-03715/2026).
• Lula’s runoff edge narrowed sharply from 51%–36% in December to 46%–43% now, a shift echoed by recent Realtime Big Data, Paraná Pesquisas and AtlasIntel readings.
• In first-round tests Lula still leads all scenarios, roughly 38–39% to 32–34% over Flávio, with Ratinho Júnior near 7% and Romeu Zema around 4–5%.
• Rejection is high for both leaders, with 46% saying they would not vote for Lula and 45% saying the same for Flávio, indicating a highly polarized electorate.
• Flávio emerges in spontaneous recall at about 12% and alternative matchups show a technical tie with Fernando Haddad (43% to 41%) and close second rounds versus Tarcísio de Freitas and Ratinho Júnior.