Datafolha Puts João Campos Ahead in Pernambuco as National Polls Show Flávio Bolsonaro Gaining in Runoff Tests

Overview

• João Campos leads Raquel Lyra 50% to 38% in Pernambuco, according to a Datafolha survey released Thursday that interviewed 1,022 voters from April 13–15 with a three‑point margin of error and TSE registration PE-04713/2026 and BR 01221/2026.
• In a simulated runoff, Datafolha shows Campos at 52% versus 42% for Lyra, with rejection rates at 25% for Campos and 29% for Lyra, signaling a consistent but not insurmountable advantage.
• Datafolha also tests the state’s two Senate seats and finds Marília Arraes leading at about 40%–42% and Humberto Costa in second at about 31%–32%, placing the PSB‑aligned slate in front.
• Lyra’s new bloc with União Brasil and PP, which includes Miguel Coelho on her ticket, would lift her TV time by roughly 1 minute 44 seconds compared with 43 seconds alone, while Campos runs with PT and PDT, showing how formal coalitions secure more exposure in Brazil’s campaign broadcasts.
• Separate national polling points to Lula facing tougher second‑round math, with Genial/Quaest showing Flávio Bolsonaro edging him 42% to 40% on vote transfers and a Paraná Pesquisas survey in São Paulo finding Flávio at 48.1% to Lula’s 40.3% in a head‑to‑head.