Overview
- Multiple sports outlets published converging dark‑horse lists on Tuesday, June 9 and most commonly named Morocco, Norway, Turkiye, Colombia, Mexico and Japan as teams that could outperform expectations.
- Japan’s chances were downgraded by injury news that ruled out Kaoru Mitoma and Takumi Minamino, leaving the squad short of two regular attacking options for the tournament.
- Morocco’s 1–1 friendly draw with Norway on June 7 reinforced views of their tactical solidity and kept them high on dark‑horse lists as Africa’s top-ranked side with proven knock‑out form.
- Analysts point to the expanded 48‑team format and 104‑match schedule across the United States, Canada and Mexico as increasing variability and creating more paths for outsiders to advance.
- The picks rest on clear patterns: home advantage for Mexico, Norway’s Haaland‑Odegaard attack, Turkiye’s young creators, Colombia and Ecuador’s South American rebuilding, and recent examples like Croatia 2018 and Morocco 2022 that show outsiders can reach late stages.