Overview
- Texas is projected to add about 154,600 jobs in 2026, or 1.1%, after essentially flat growth last year of roughly 10,700 jobs, the Dallas Fed says.
- Pia Orrenius of the Dallas Fed says the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown is producing a chilling effect that hinders hiring and retention of foreign‑born workers, including those here legally.
- The Fed expects migration to slow sharply, with about 89,000 people moving to Texas in 2026, raising longer‑term concerns for an economy long buoyed by population gains.
- AI‑driven productivity is allowing firms to do more with fewer workers, low oil prices remain a drag, and non‑residential building tied to data centers is poised to stay strong as Texas remains second to Virginia in that industry.
- City outcomes diverged in 2025—Austin grew nearly 1% while Dallas and Houston were flat and San Antonio declined—and households face added strain from a five‑year, 58% jump in property insurance costs.