Overview
- The Dallas Fed circulated a working paper in early July 2026 that uses immigration court records and administrative data to measure unauthorized-worker flows from March 2021 to March 2024.
- The draft estimates a 1 percent rise in unauthorized workers corresponded with roughly a 1 percent rise in employment, a 2.2 percent rise in home prices, and a 1.4 percent rise in rents in affected local markets.
- Researchers say the inflow acted as a demand shock because they found little evidence that homebuilding expanded enough to absorb the added population in supply‑constrained metropolitan areas.
- Vice President JD Vance and conservative outlets have seized the draft as validation of his long‑running claims while mainstream outlets and many economists point to the paper’s draft status and emphasize that decades of underbuilding remain the main cause of U.S. housing unaffordability.
- The paper is preliminary and seeks comment, so its findings do not represent official Federal Reserve System policy and could shape political debate and policy proposals on immigration and housing in the coming weeks.