Overview
- A preliminary working paper circulated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas finds the 2021–24 surge in unauthorized arrivals raised employment roughly one-for-one in affected metropolitan areas while having little measurable effect on average wages.
- The authors estimate that, for the average metro, those unauthorized-worker inflows accounted for about 30% of employment growth, roughly 30% of home-price growth, and about 20% of rent growth over the study window.
- Quantitatively the paper reports a 1% rise in unauthorized workers corresponded with about a 2.2% increase in local home prices and roughly a 1.4% increase in rents, effects the authors link to stronger demand where new housing supply remained limited.
- The study combines individual immigration court records with government administrative data and notes areas with larger unauthorized-worker increases saw declines in government transfer payments, which the authors say may reflect stronger employment and lower safety-net use.
- The paper is a draft for professional comment and does not necessarily reflect official Federal Reserve views, so its estimates should be treated as preliminary and subject to peer review even as they feed into ongoing debates over border policy and housing affordability.