Overview
- The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas circulated a preliminary working paper in early July 2026 that studies unauthorized-worker flows from March 2021 to March 2024 and invites professional comment.
- Researchers estimate that a 1 percent rise in unauthorized workers relative to a local labor force corresponded with about a 2.2 percent increase in home prices and a 1.4 percent rise in rents in the average metro area.
- The paper finds that unauthorized-worker inflows explained roughly 30 percent of employment growth, about 30 percent of home-price growth, and around 20 percent of rent growth in the average commuting zone over the period.
- Authors report roughly a 1 percent rise in overall employment per 1 percent increase in unauthorized workers but provide mixed evidence on wages, with some passages showing little change in average wages and others noting a fall in per‑capita labor income.
- The study uses immigration court records and government administrative data, cites CBO estimates that net unauthorized immigration added about 7 million people before mid‑2024, notes limited new homebuilding to absorb demand, and stresses the draft does not represent official Fed System views as politicians and media rapidly cited its findings.