Overview
- Colorado State University projects 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes, with below-average odds of a major U.S. landfall at 32%.
- Forecasters say El Niño tends to strengthen upper-level winds over the Atlantic and Caribbean, which tear developing storms apart and reduce overall energy.
- National Hurricane Center specialists warn that one landfalling storm can still cause severe damage, with warm Gulf waters capable of rapid intensification near the coast.
- CSU based expectations on analog years 2006, 2009, 2015, and 2023, noting that 2015 saw no U.S. hurricane landfalls while 2023 stayed active due to record Atlantic heat.
- NOAA plans to issue its official outlook in late May, and preparedness groups urge residents and lenders to plan now given potential insurance claims and mortgage strain from even a single strike.