Overview
- Colorado State University’s first 2026 outlook calls for 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.
- CSU expects a robust El Niño at the season’s peak to raise vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, which tilts and tears developing storms and makes them harder to form.
- The team estimates below-average chances for a major hurricane landfall in 2026, including 32% for the entire U.S. coast, 15% for the East Coast, 20% for the Gulf Coast, and 35% for the Caribbean.
- Researchers and industry sources caution that one landfall can still cause severe local damage and job loss, which has previously pushed up mortgage delinquencies in hard-hit areas.
- Forecasters will refine guidance in the weeks ahead, with NOAA’s official Atlantic outlook due in late May and CSU pointing to analog years like 2006, 2009, 2015, and 2023 to frame expectations.