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4h ago

CSU Forecasts Slightly Below-Average 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

A likely El Niño would boost wind shear over the tropics and limit storm growth.

Destroyed buildings are seen after Hurricane Melissa hit Black River, Jamaica, in October. THe storm cut a path of destruction through the Caribbean.
IN SPACE, CARIBBEAN SEA - OCTOBER 28: (EDITOR'S NOTE: This Handout image was provided by a third-party organization and may not adhere to Getty Images' editorial policy.) In this handout satellite image provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Hurricane Melissa churns through the Caribbean Sea, captured at 15:20Z on October 28, 2025. Hurricane Melissa has intensified into a Category 5 storm as it approaches Jamaica, bringing torrential winds and rain, according to the National Hurricane Center. (Photo by NOAA via Getty Images)
A home is surrounded by flood waters in the aftermath of Hurricane Dorian, in Calabash, North Carolina, U.S., September 6, 2019. REUTERS/Jonathan Drake/File Photo
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Overview

  • Colorado State University, which released its initial outlook Thursday, projects 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes for 2026.
  • Researchers expect a moderate to strong El Niño by the August–October peak, with vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic potentially near the highest levels seen since 1981.
  • Sea temperatures show mixed signals, with warmer water in the western tropical Atlantic and slightly cooler water in the eastern zones that often seed long‑track storms.
  • CSU lists lower-than-normal odds of a major U.S. landfall this year, estimating 32% for the entire coastline, 20% for the Gulf Coast, and 15% for the East Coast.
  • For the first time the team used an AI climate emulator in its ensemble and plans updates on June 10, July 8, and August 5, urging residents to prepare early since one storm can still cause severe local damage.