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5h ago

CSU Forecast Predicts Slightly Below-Average 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

An expected El Niño would raise wind shear to levels that typically suppress Atlantic hurricanes.

Destroyed buildings are seen after Hurricane Melissa hit Black River, Jamaica, in October. THe storm cut a path of destruction through the Caribbean.
IN SPACE, CARIBBEAN SEA - OCTOBER 28: (EDITOR'S NOTE: This Handout image was provided by a third-party organization and may not adhere to Getty Images' editorial policy.) In this handout satellite image provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Hurricane Melissa churns through the Caribbean Sea, captured at 15:20Z on October 28, 2025. Hurricane Melissa has intensified into a Category 5 storm as it approaches Jamaica, bringing torrential winds and rain, according to the National Hurricane Center. (Photo by NOAA via Getty Images)
A home is surrounded by flood waters in the aftermath of Hurricane Dorian, in Calabash, North Carolina, U.S., September 6, 2019. REUTERS/Jonathan Drake/File Photo
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Overview

  • CSU, which released its April outlook Thursday, projects 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes, slightly below the 1991–2020 average of 14, seven and three.
  • The team cites a developing El Niño likely by late summer that would boost upper-level wind shear during the August–October peak, a pattern that tends to hinder storm formation and intensification.
  • Landfall odds include a 32% chance of a major hurricane striking the entire U.S. coastline, 15% for the East Coast including Florida, 20% for the Gulf Coast, and 35% for the Caribbean.
  • Researchers flag high early-season uncertainty tied to sea-surface temperature patterns and the timing and strength of El Niño, and they urge coastal residents to prepare because one storm can still cause severe damage.
  • CSU blended statistical models with guidance from ECMWF, the UK Met Office and CMCC, incorporated an AI tool (Ai2 Climate Emulator) for the first time, and scheduled forecast updates for June 10, July 8 and August 5.