Overview
- The Center for Strategic and International Studies released an analysis Wednesday concluding the United States used more than 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles and large numbers of Patriot and THAAD interceptors in the Iran campaign, producing deep stockpile shortfalls.
- CSIS estimates that Patriot and THAAD interceptors will not be back to prewar levels until mid‑to‑late 2029 and that Tomahawk inventories may take until late 2030 or early 2031 to recover at current production rates.
- Analysts say the main bottleneck is production capacity and long lead times for complex missiles, not money, noting that expanding factories and supply chains takes years even with proposed record defense budgets and contractor investments.
- The Trump administration and Pentagon say readiness is intact and have pressed contractors to ramp output while proposing a $1.5 trillion defense budget for 2027 and securing multibillion‑dollar industry pledges, including Lockheed Martin’s $9 billion plan through 2030.
- Allies such as Ukraine and Taiwan face delayed deliveries and harder choices about air‑defense allocations, a diplomatic strain that could change deterrence calculations and force the U.S. to prioritize its own replenishment over partner requests.