Overview
- New whole‑system modeling identifies solar PV, onshore wind, storage and fast‑start gas or hydrogen as the lowest‑cost mix, with offshore wind, carbon capture and nuclear increasing average electricity costs.
- Nuclear remains the most expensive option across scenarios, and small modular reactors carry the highest capital costs among technologies assessed.
- Wholesale generation costs are estimated at $115–$124/MWh by 2050, or $135–$148/MWh including transmission, which is lower than today’s roughly $129/MWh benchmark.
- CSIRO notes it is not economically efficient to remove all electricity‑sector emissions, with fossil gas favored over green hydrogen for backup and residual emissions offset elsewhere.
- Cost trends show large battery prices falling another 15% after a prior 20% drop while coal and open‑cycle gas equipment costs have risen, reinforcing calls for faster investment and approvals to meet the 2030 goal.