Overview
- U.S. CPI came in slightly below forecasts, pushing Fed rate‑cut odds to 99% and sparking a brief risk‑on move that lifted BTC toward $111,500 and boosted major altcoins.
- Analysts flag weakening spot structure with BTC still below the ~$113,000 short‑term holders’ cost basis, and warn of potential downside toward the $108,000 area if momentum fades.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs logged roughly $100 million in net daily outflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT inflows offset by withdrawals at funds such as Fidelity’s FBTC, underscoring fragile institutional demand.
- Derivatives activity sits near record levels with rising put hedges, indicating capital is rotating from spot into options and futures and leaving rallies constrained by hedging flows.
- Ether trades around $3.8k–$3.9k as exchange netflows flip to inflows—especially at Binance—suggesting near‑term selling risk even as realized‑price metrics remain supportive; XRP holds near $2.45 with exchange reserves down about 3.36% since early October signaling accumulation, and Dogecoin consolidates near $0.19 on elevated volume.